The World Sits Idly by as Iran Moves to Erase, Crush and Dislodge the Story behind the Beirut Port Cataclysm
Demonstrators wave Lebanese flags during protests near the site of a blast at Beirut's port area. Courtesy, the National

The World Sits Idly by as Iran Moves to Erase, Crush and Dislodge the Story behind the Beirut Port Cataclysm

It is welcome news that Iran wants to restore ties with Saudi Arabia, and that the five permanent members of the UN Security Council are reaching out to Iran to enlist its help in ending the war in Yemen. But let’s hope these mark serious shifts and not just half-baked steps for temporary appeasement. The Saudi-Iranian talks taking place in Iraq must also continue beyond the recent fourth round, in the hope that a new chapter would start between Iran and its Arab neighbors in the Gulf and the Middle East. Having said all that, we must talk about the current implications of the Western powers – the US, Britain, France, and Germany – along with China and Russia agreeing to compartmentalize the Vienna talks and separate Iran’s regional activities.

From Iraq to Lebanon, these implications are clear, as Iran and its proxies behave with a combination of panic and arrogance.

The Iraqi elections produced a surprising outcome, revealing the resentment against Iran-backed militias and parties. However, this was met with threats to undo the results – risking an existential security crisis but proving that. armed with the Biden administration and European appeasement for the sake of the nuclear deal, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and their proxies cannot stomach democratic elections.

In Lebanon, agreeing to exclude Iran’s regional behavior from the nuclear talks has emboldened Hezbollah. Believing there will be no international accountability, Hezbollah is explicitly stating its determination to crush justice and the judiciary, flout the principle of the separation of powers, and bury the investigation into the Beirut Port explosion. If the new Lebanese government refuses its diktats, Hezbollah is threatening to topple it and launch a street war reminiscent of the traumatizing years of the civil war.

Hezbollah and its ally Amal in the Shia Duo are preparing the gallows for Tarek Bitar, the investigative judge leading the Beirut Port inquiry, accusing him of ‘politicizing’ the investigation just because he is not submitting to their interference. The Shia Duo has also launched a similar campaign against Judge Suheil Abboud, chief justice of Lebanon, just because he dared place law and justice above politics. The panic felt by the Shia Duo over the judiciary’s revolt against the political class is clear, as is its determination to label the opposition as traitors and incite violence against it. The Hezbollah-Amal’s overconfidence belies a combination of anxiety from the investigation and its outcome on the one hand, and a bet that US and European reactions will not go beyond futile denunciations – because their priority is the nuclear deal with and not accountability for Iran.

Clearly, Hezbollah does not want the investigation into the Beirut Port explosion and the assassination of Lebanon’s capital to expand and wants to shut it down completely. The issue of the port explosion is complicated, including the story of how the ship carrying the ammonium nitrates arrived in Beirut, which appears to involve international shell companies and dodgy dealings linked to the corrupt ruling class in Lebanon, and the port under Hezbollah’s control.

There are many hypotheses. The investigation has yet to arrive at any conclusions. The countries that have satellite reconnaissance capabilities have dithered and delayed since Lebanon asked them to share images of the port on the day of the explosion – up to 17 countries. Some ignored the request, others denied having any images. According to informed sources, the United States and Turkey shared their images in official correspondence that stated nothing proves a strike from outside the port had triggered the explosion. France, which claims that Lebanon is one of its priorities, has not complied with the Lebanese request.

From the Russian captain of the ship to the Georgian owner, to the holding company registered in Britain and European companies that quickly vanished, something fishy went on, involving Lebanese, regional, and international actors, and the story goes way beyond shadowy brokers and nitrates. Indeed, according to intelligence sources, illicit imports and exports were transiting from Beirut port not just to Syria but also to Iran. And this is not exclusively about the nitrates, which were reportedly used in barrel bombs dropped by the regime in Damascus on rebels. According to the sources, the biggest concern for the Iranians thus is anything that could uncover what was passing through Beirut port to Iran, including chemicals, spare parts, chips and electronics, and sensitive materials for its missile and nuclear programs.

Establishing that sensitive materials related to Iran’s nuclear program were passing through Beirut port could threaten a setback for the Vienna talks, which could endanger the prospect for lifting US sanctions on Iran. For this reason, it is a red line for the investigations into the port explosion to reach – even unintentionally – any damning documents much of which is reported to have been incinerated after the blast.  According to the sources, who are sympathetic to Iran, the destruction of evidence is crucial and there is no margin for the kind of risk that Judge Bitar’s investigation carries. “It’s better for everyone to erase the whole issue from memory,” the sources added saying “there are many details that could lead to more harm for more than one party, and no one wants to clear the fog” surrounding the matter.

Easy for the pro-Iran camp to advise ignoring what happened on 4 August 2020, on the pretext that neither Russia, Iran, Israel nor the Europeans and the United States “want to open the door to the dark room”. In other words, these sources are saying, “Eat excrement, because 40 billion flies cannot be wrong”. But four million Lebanese people have been eating nothing but excrement in the past two years thanks to the corrupt ruling class, Hezbollah’s armed tyranny, and the alliance between Hezbollah and the president’s Free Patriotic movement. Today, the FPM finds itself in a predicament – and President Michel Aoun finds himself having to choose between yielding to his ally Hezbollah and its ministers defying him, and his popular base which has had enough and does not want to ‘let bygones be bygones’ when it comes to the port investigation.

Yet President Aoun is no victim without agency. He can take advantage of the situation to act in the interest of Lebanon, first and foremost by upholding the principle of the separation of powers – political from judicial. He must show wisdom and courage based on a profound reading of the results so far of his alliance with Hezbollah, an alliance that has allowed the latter to seize all the levers of the Lebanese state, put the presidency in an awkward corner, and dictate to it what to do, while threatening to topple the new Mikati government – ultimately, the government of Hezbollah.

Stopping the investigation has therefore become an absolute priority for the Shia Duo, which has refused to allow its ministers to be questioned by Judge Bitar. To clarify, those wanted for questioning are not exclusively Amal-affiliated figures like Ali Hassan Khalil and Ghazi Zeaiter, but also include Nouhad Machnouk and Yusuf Finianos.

President Aoun can take the exit ramp from his predicament and give permission to Judge Bitar to question Maj. Gen. Tony Saliba, the head of the State Security agency. Prime Minister Najib Mikati can signal though the Sunni interior minister a green light to Judge Bitar to question Maj. Gen. Abbas Ibrahim, the head of General Security. By doing so, the president and PM can set an example for others and prove that they are protectors of the judiciary.

The crisis is now between an independent judiciary and a political authority that considers itself above the law, and that refuses even a questioning, resorting instead to inciting the street against the court system. The international community must stop verbal denunciations and immediately support the independent judiciary in Lebanon. The judiciary is in grave danger, and international protection must be afforded to Lebanon’s judges. The United States and the European powers, led by France, can move to deploy sanctions against those mutinying against the judiciary, as the Lebanese security services fail to act fearing political recriminations.

The insistence of Hezbollah and Amal on President Aoun to remove the investigative judge by any means, and the threat to topple Mikati’s government, has been accompanied by hints at using other means because there will be no backing down from the decision to ‘liquidate’ Bitar, either politically or forcibly. Clearly, the Shia Duo is determined to foil the investigation into the port explosion, and not just Tarek Bitar. Clearly too, the Iranian leadership is strongly supporting Hezbollah’s intransigence on this issue, even if this were to cause a major upheaval in the Lebanese political structure, because for Tehran, erasing the crime at the port is a top priority.

Informed sources close to Iran have confirmed that it is Iran that has issued orders to crush and erase Bitar’s investigation. Neither Tehran nor the Shia Duo will compromise on the issue of erasing the investigation and what happened at the port of Beirut. The Beirut port case is a slippery slope to much bigger repercussions than the problems caused by the investigation controversy and the removal of Bitar per se – in the view of Hezbollah and the IRGC. Erasing the whole case may be costly today, but if it remains alive then the cost will be much more down the road, in Tehran’s view.

Tarek Bitar has become a dangerous man for them because he is uncovering the story of the port blast with evidence that will prove to be a huge problem for Tehran and the Shia Duo. He has become a problem that, in case it cannot solved, will have to be erased without hesitation! They have no fear of any local or international repercussions, because Tehran’s interpretation of the international landscape suggests it has succeeded in taming the Europeans, to the extent that they can become complicit in turning a blind eye to a crime against humanity; and has succeeded in crippling the Americans under Biden, to the extent that it is guaranteed they can act with impunity, no matter what they do to crush and erase the truth about the terrifying cataclysm of the Beirut port.


George Sabat

Yesterday's Budget Vote may have dealt a serious blow to Lebanon's Financial, Social, and Economic Status.

2y

We should not, and cannot expect the World to intervene with regard to the Beirut Port Cataclysm. It is up to the well intentioned Lebanese citizens to meet together and offer the right suggestions and/or initiatives that would help in finding the "FACTS" of a several years old event, let alone drawing up a repairs program. Long after it occurred, has anyone drawn up such a program. If so, why has it not been published? And if it has can one inform us where can we read it? Finding the culprits is of course vital, but drawing up a "REPAIRS PROGRAM AND CALENDAR" is also VITALLY IMPORTANT. WHY HAS IT NOT BEEN PUBLISHED YET? AND IF IT HAS, KINDLY INFORM US WHERE WE CAN READ IT? georgesabat32@gmail.com

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Wassim Mourtada

QuanticAsset: AI Driven Hedge Funds

2y

Fascinating

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